Comments on: Bills’ Playoff Forecast http://drmarcey.wordpress.com/2007/12/04/bills-playoff-forecast/ A Young Man's Primer on Sports Statistical Analysis Thu, 21 Aug 2008 22:48:02 +0000 http://wordpress.com/ hourly 1 By: Chris http://drmarcey.wordpress.com/2007/12/04/bills-playoff-forecast/#comment-16 Chris Thu, 06 Dec 2007 04:56:17 +0000 http://drmarcey.wordpress.com/2007/12/04/bills-playoff-forecast/#comment-16 Thanks for the compliment, drmarcy. I've been doing the generic playoff predictions and specific scenario analysis for the Chiefs for about 10 years. I figured fans of other teams would like to analyze the scenarios for their teams, so I that is the reason that I wrote the software, which has been up on my website for 3 seasons now. Thanks for the compliment, drmarcy. I’ve been doing the generic playoff predictions and specific scenario analysis for the Chiefs for about 10 years. I figured fans of other teams would like to analyze the scenarios for their teams, so I that is the reason that I wrote the software, which has been up on my website for 3 seasons now.

]]> By: drmarcey http://drmarcey.wordpress.com/2007/12/04/bills-playoff-forecast/#comment-15 drmarcey Thu, 06 Dec 2007 03:46:46 +0000 http://drmarcey.wordpress.com/2007/12/04/bills-playoff-forecast/#comment-15 Wow! That's a great break-down, Chris. I played around with NFL-forecast's java tool for scenario analysis for a solid 30 minutes. It's some really cool software and I recommend that you check it out to see the types of things it does. Thanks! Wow! That’s a great break-down, Chris. I played around with NFL-forecast’s java tool for scenario analysis for a solid 30 minutes. It’s some really cool software and I recommend that you check it out to see the types of things it does. Thanks!

]]> By: Chris http://drmarcey.wordpress.com/2007/12/04/bills-playoff-forecast/#comment-14 Chris Wed, 05 Dec 2007 23:16:37 +0000 http://drmarcey.wordpress.com/2007/12/04/bills-playoff-forecast/#comment-14 Joel - in that 3-way tie scenario that you outlined, Tennessee wins that tiebreaker in all cases. I'm not sure which tiebreaker comes into effect, but Tennessee has the advantage in that case. Here are the conditional playoff odds for the Bills: Win all 4 games = 95% Go 3-1 losing to Philadelphia or the Giants = 65%. Here Buffalo is in very good shape with other 9-win teams. So if Cleveland drops one additional game and Tennessee drops two, Buffalo is in. This ignores scenarios where Jacksonville enters the mix. Go 3-1 losing to Miami = 52%. Here, if both Buffalo and Tennessee end up with 9 wins, Tennessee has the advantage. But Buffalo would have the advantage over Tennessee Go 3-1 losing to Cleveland = 5%. There are some long-shot odds with 8 wins that really aren't worth talking about. You can easily do these types of scenario analysis yourself using the software at my site. Joel – in that 3-way tie scenario that you outlined, Tennessee wins that tiebreaker in all cases. I’m not sure which tiebreaker comes into effect, but Tennessee has the advantage in that case.

Here are the conditional playoff odds for the Bills:

Win all 4 games = 95%

Go 3-1 losing to Philadelphia or the Giants = 65%. Here Buffalo is in very good shape with other 9-win teams. So if Cleveland drops one additional game and Tennessee drops two, Buffalo is in. This ignores scenarios where Jacksonville enters the mix.

Go 3-1 losing to Miami = 52%. Here, if both Buffalo and Tennessee end up with 9 wins, Tennessee has the advantage. But Buffalo would have the advantage over Tennessee

Go 3-1 losing to Cleveland = 5%.

There are some long-shot odds with 8 wins that really aren’t worth talking about.

You can easily do these types of scenario analysis yourself using the software at my site.

]]> By: Joel Marcey http://drmarcey.wordpress.com/2007/12/04/bills-playoff-forecast/#comment-13 Joel Marcey Wed, 05 Dec 2007 14:55:12 +0000 http://drmarcey.wordpress.com/2007/12/04/bills-playoff-forecast/#comment-13 From one Bills sufferer to another.... The crazy scenario comes if Buffalo runs the table, and they, Cleveland and Tennessee are all tied with the same record. Because then the head-to-head win by Buffalo over Cleveland wouldn't matter, I don't think. I think, based on the tiebreaker procedures, you would actually have to go down to either strength of victory or strength of schedule. Maybe even farther down. Let's just hope the Bills run the table, and Cleveland and Tennesee lose two games :-) http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/news?slug=tiebreakers&prov=st&type=lgns From one Bills sufferer to another….

The crazy scenario comes if Buffalo runs the table, and they, Cleveland and Tennessee are all tied with the same record. Because then the head-to-head win by Buffalo over Cleveland wouldn’t matter, I don’t think. I think, based on the tiebreaker procedures, you would actually have to go down to either strength of victory or strength of schedule. Maybe even farther down. Let’s just hope the Bills run the table, and Cleveland and Tennesee lose two games :-)

http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/news?slug=tiebreakers&prov=st&type=lgns

]]> By: footballprofessor http://drmarcey.wordpress.com/2007/12/04/bills-playoff-forecast/#comment-10 footballprofessor Wed, 05 Dec 2007 04:51:28 +0000 http://drmarcey.wordpress.com/2007/12/04/bills-playoff-forecast/#comment-10 Welcome to the blogosphere! Welcome to the blogosphere!

]]>