Posts Tagged 'playoffs'

Bills’ Playoff Forecast

So it’s time that I let you all in on the disappointing secret that I am a Buffalo Bills fan. In case you were wondering, from childhood, I selected sports franchises that were doom to let me down – the Bills, Buffalo Sabres, and Chicago Cubs – and even my college team, NC State. Now that I have divulged that embarrassing piece of information, I’ll let you in on a little pastime of mine that comes around the second week of December. I begin the long-drawn process of figuring out the exact scenarios necessary for my dreams of the Bills making the playoffs to come true.

Here we are again – Buffalo teetering on mediocrity at 6-6 with 4 games to go: Miami, Cleveland, New York Giants, and Philly. I consider the first two, Miami and Cleveland, to be “must-win” for all intents and purposes. Miami, because it is a conference game, and an important game for the Bills to gain some momentum, and Cleveland because they are currently one game ahead of the Bills in the AFC Wild-Card race. A victory there would not only tie them up in the race, but also give them the head-t0-head tiebreaker in a two-way tie for the last wildcard spot. At 8-6, the Bills would almost control their own destiny. I’ll wait one week to start my exact scenarios but I wanted to mention the chances that the nfl-forecast.com blog, powered by Brian Burke‘s prediction model give the Bills. After Week 12 the Bills had just a 3% chance of obtaining one of the two AFC wild cards. Granted this number probably went up after the Bills’ victory and a loss by the Browns, I still think it will be a little low.

I have a lot of respect for Brian’s prediction methodology and think it’s the best model that I’ve come across, it can’t take things like the return of Marshawn Lynch, or Trent Edwards taking over the starting job. For now, I’ll just hold onto the glimmer of hope my teams always give me, before I’m brutally crushed.

UPDATE!!

NFL-forecast.com has released its post-Week 13 playoff predictions and the Bills bring home a whopping 17.88% chance of making the playoffs. Now my heart will only be broken a little more than 4 out of 5 times!

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